A time-series analysis of dairy production in Punakha District

Abstract

Time-series analysis is a measurement of values at a time period. The study was undertaken to forecast time-series data of the dairy cattle population and milk production for future planning and decision-making purposes. The study used secondary data source of Punakha district for the period of 15 years (2006-2020). The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models using the forecasting command of SPSS version 25 were used for trend analysis and predicting values for the coming decade. The model estimated that the improved cattle population will increase by 48.39 percent, while the local cattle population is expected to decrease by 3.41 percent. During the same period, the overall cattle population is shown to increase by 15.29 percent. It is estimated that the growth rate for milk production will grow by 34.80 percent. Despite the growth in improved cattle population and milk production, the milk self-sufficiency is predicted to decline to 54.33 percent in 2030 from 64.47 percent in 2020. Considering the current average daily milk production of 1.99 litres per cow, the district would require 4240 milking cows to produce 2560 metric tonnes of milk at the end of project period. However, if milk productivity is to be optimized to 4 litres per cow per day, 2112 milking cows in the district is enough to produce 2560 metric tonnes of milk. This is a decrease of 8.3 percent milking cattle population over the decade. Based on the outcomes of this study, there is a need to strengthen the application of artificial insemination technology as the main driving force for the steady increase in crossbreed dairy cattle population, initiate a co-governance system working modality where every stakeholder accepts and plays an important role in mainstreaming dairy value chain and encourage farmers for proper herd management, better health care facitities for high yielding dairy animals. The extension arm should play a critical role and provide effective and efficient livestock services to the farmers for enhancing the productivity of high yielding dairy animals.